The trend is clear: when electricity prices rise due to growing demand, the increases remain most modest in Italy, due both to higher starting prices and the fact that Italy's electricity prices rely primarily on natural gas, rather than renewable energy, as in other countries.
During the week of August 11, weekly average prices exceeded €75/MWh in most European electricity markets. The exceptions were the Nordic and French markets, which saw average prices of €28.00/MWh and €66.34/MWh, respectively. However, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, the Italian market had the highest weekly average price, reaching €113.27/MWh. Among the other markets analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged from €77.06/MWh in Belgium to €96.18/MWh in the UK's N2EX market.
The trend seems clear: when electricity prices rise due to growing demand, Italy still experiences the smallest increase, both due to higher starting prices and its reliance on natural gas rather than renewable energy sources as in other countries. Consequently, Italian electricity prices have been more stable, albeit at a higher level. Last week, electricity demand in the Italian market also declined, bucking the trend in other major European markets.
In terms of daily electricity prices, the average price in the Nordic market reached its lowest level of the week among the analyzed markets on Saturday, August 16, at €4.55/MWh. On August 13, the market reached its highest price since May 10, at €63.56/MWh. Meanwhile, daily electricity prices in the Italian market remained above €100/MWh throughout the second week of August. Prices in the UK, Spain, and Portugal also exceeded €100/MWh on August 13, while prices in Germany, the UK, and the Netherlands also exceeded €100/MWh on August 14.
Hourly electricity prices in Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands exceeded €200/MWh on both August 13th and 14th. On Thursday, August 14th, between 8:00 PM and 9:00 PM, hourly electricity prices in Germany reached their highest level of the week, reaching €283.89/MWh. Meanwhile, prices in Northern Europe reached €96.93/MWh between 8:00 PM and 9:00 PM on August 13th, their highest level since May 10th.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting's price forecast indicates that electricity prices will fall in most European power markets in the third week of August due to increased wind power generation. Demand is also expected to decline in some markets.
Photovoltaic, Wind Energy, and Electricity Demand
Solar photovoltaic power generation in the French (+13%) and German (+8%) electricity markets increased for the third consecutive week in the week ending August 11, pushing these two largest EU countries to record August power generation records: on Monday, August 11, the German and French markets generated 437 GWh and 155 GWh, respectively.
In Southern European markets, the previous week's upward trend reversed. The Italian market saw the largest decrease, at 9.3%, followed by Portugal and Spain, with declines of 5.8% and 4.7%, respectively.
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting's forecast for the week ending August 18, solar photovoltaic power generation in the Spanish market is expected to increase. Conversely, generation in the Italian and German markets is expected to decrease.
In the second week of August, wind power generation increased in Portugal (+53%) and France (+48%) compared to the previous week, while it decreased in Germany (-42%), Italy (-30%), and Spain (-25%), marking the second consecutive week of declines in all three markets.
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting's wind energy forecast, wind power production is expected to increase in Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Italy on August 18th. Conversely, wind power production is expected to decrease in France.
For the week of August 11th, electricity demand increased in most major European markets compared to the previous week, with the exception of Portugal (-3.5%) and Italy (-1.4%).
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting's forecast, demand is expected to increase in Germany, Spain, and Italy during the week of August 18th, while it is expected to decrease in France, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and Belgium.
Oil and Gas
In the second week of August, the front-month Brent crude oil futures price on the ICE market remained below $67 per barrel. On August 13, these futures reached a weekly low of $65.63 per barrel. According to data analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the lowest price since June 6.
Front-month TTF natural gas futures on the ICE market reached a weekly high of €33.00 per megawatt-hour on Monday, August 11. Prices subsequently began to decline, ultimately reaching a weekly low of €31.03 per megawatt-hour on Friday, August 15. This price was down 4.4% from the previous Friday and the lowest since July 11, 2024, according to data analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
The trend is clear: when electricity prices rise due to growing demand, the increases remain most modest in Italy, due both to higher starting prices and the fact that Italy's electricity prices rely primarily on natural gas, rather than renewable energy, as in other countries.
During the week of August 11, weekly average prices exceeded €75/MWh in most European electricity markets. The exceptions were the Nordic and French markets, which saw average prices of €28.00/MWh and €66.34/MWh, respectively. However, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, the Italian market had the highest weekly average price, reaching €113.27/MWh. Among the other markets analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged from €77.06/MWh in Belgium to €96.18/MWh in the UK's N2EX market.
The trend seems clear: when electricity prices rise due to growing demand, Italy still experiences the smallest increase, both due to higher starting prices and its reliance on natural gas rather than renewable energy sources as in other countries. Consequently, Italian electricity prices have been more stable, albeit at a higher level. Last week, electricity demand in the Italian market also declined, bucking the trend in other major European markets.
In terms of daily electricity prices, the average price in the Nordic market reached its lowest level of the week among the analyzed markets on Saturday, August 16, at €4.55/MWh. On August 13, the market reached its highest price since May 10, at €63.56/MWh. Meanwhile, daily electricity prices in the Italian market remained above €100/MWh throughout the second week of August. Prices in the UK, Spain, and Portugal also exceeded €100/MWh on August 13, while prices in Germany, the UK, and the Netherlands also exceeded €100/MWh on August 14.
Hourly electricity prices in Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands exceeded €200/MWh on both August 13th and 14th. On Thursday, August 14th, between 8:00 PM and 9:00 PM, hourly electricity prices in Germany reached their highest level of the week, reaching €283.89/MWh. Meanwhile, prices in Northern Europe reached €96.93/MWh between 8:00 PM and 9:00 PM on August 13th, their highest level since May 10th.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting's price forecast indicates that electricity prices will fall in most European power markets in the third week of August due to increased wind power generation. Demand is also expected to decline in some markets.
Photovoltaic, Wind Energy, and Electricity Demand
Solar photovoltaic power generation in the French (+13%) and German (+8%) electricity markets increased for the third consecutive week in the week ending August 11, pushing these two largest EU countries to record August power generation records: on Monday, August 11, the German and French markets generated 437 GWh and 155 GWh, respectively.
In Southern European markets, the previous week's upward trend reversed. The Italian market saw the largest decrease, at 9.3%, followed by Portugal and Spain, with declines of 5.8% and 4.7%, respectively.
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting's forecast for the week ending August 18, solar photovoltaic power generation in the Spanish market is expected to increase. Conversely, generation in the Italian and German markets is expected to decrease.
In the second week of August, wind power generation increased in Portugal (+53%) and France (+48%) compared to the previous week, while it decreased in Germany (-42%), Italy (-30%), and Spain (-25%), marking the second consecutive week of declines in all three markets.
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting's wind energy forecast, wind power production is expected to increase in Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Italy on August 18th. Conversely, wind power production is expected to decrease in France.
For the week of August 11th, electricity demand increased in most major European markets compared to the previous week, with the exception of Portugal (-3.5%) and Italy (-1.4%).
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting's forecast, demand is expected to increase in Germany, Spain, and Italy during the week of August 18th, while it is expected to decrease in France, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and Belgium.
Oil and Gas
In the second week of August, the front-month Brent crude oil futures price on the ICE market remained below $67 per barrel. On August 13, these futures reached a weekly low of $65.63 per barrel. According to data analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the lowest price since June 6.
Front-month TTF natural gas futures on the ICE market reached a weekly high of €33.00 per megawatt-hour on Monday, August 11. Prices subsequently began to decline, ultimately reaching a weekly low of €31.03 per megawatt-hour on Friday, August 15. This price was down 4.4% from the previous Friday and the lowest since July 11, 2024, according to data analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
