Global supply chain saves $67 billion in solar panel production costs
A new study calculates that a globalized PV module supply chain has saved PV installers in Germany, the US and China billions of dollars. The study also found that solar panel costs will increase by 20-25% by 2030 if strong nationalist policies that restrict the free flow of talent and capital continue.
As solar manufacturing has recently been plagued by geopolitical tensions and supply chain crises, several regions are looking to accelerate domestic manufacturing. A new study finds that the globalized solar PV supply chain played a key role in helping to reduce module prices between 2006-2020.
The U.S. researchers calculated that a globalized supply chain would save $67 billion in solar panel production costs compared to a counterfactual scenario in which more and more installed capacity was supplied by domestic manufacturers over the aforementioned time period.
Specifically, their research focused on the historical installed capacity of solar panel modules deployed in the three countries with the largest solar deployments—the United States, Germany, and China—as well as feedstock and sales price data. It found that globalizing the solar supply chain has saved the United States, Germany, and China, respectively, $24 billion, $7 billion, and $36 billion.
According to the study, titled "Quantifying Cost Savings in the Global Solar PV Supply Chain," published in the journal Nature, assuming that all three countries vigorously pursued nationalist trade policies that limit cross-border learning during the same period, The price of solar panels in 2020 will increase significantly - 107% higher in the United States, 83% in Germany and 54% in China.
The research team also illustrates the cost implications of continuing to pursue more protectionist trade policies. They estimate that solar panel prices in these three countries will be around 20-25% higher by 2030 compared to adopting a globalized supply chain if nationalist policies continue to be vigorously pursued in the future. Policies such as imposing import tariffs will raise production costs, complicating efforts to speed up the deployment of renewable energy sources such as solar, the researchers said.
Michael Davidson, assistant professor at UC San Diego and co-author of the study, said: "Policies that cut off global value chains and restrict the movement of people and capital will disrupt the global learning process that has made solar power successful. Demonstrating the achievement of grand cleanliness Modeling the viability of energy targets relies on continued cost reductions, which may not be achieved if countries choose to go it alone."
Since the U.S. recently passed the Inflation Cuts Act, the largest climate-energy package in the country's history, "our research can help drive the The conversation is about reminding them not to pursue protectionist policies. We can and should support the U.S. manufacturing base in a way that encourages companies to trade with foreign partners to continue accelerating cost reductions.”
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